Fantasy Football Start Sit
I have missed you all. Time away makes the heart grow fonder, or maybe it’s distance. Hmmmm. Regardless, insert something overly emo and heartfelt and attach my name to it. Bam. For you guys.
The NFL season continues to roll on and the squeeze is on for all of us. Well, maybe not you 7-0 and 6-1 guys. Unless you are winless, you still have a shot, and odds are most of us are somewhere in between. This is the time to really start digging in for the playoffs. Teams with great records can start taking some risks on guys coming back from injury or with upcoming byes, those fighting hard may need to switch things up to avoid those types of problems. Week 8 will be a big one. With 6 teams on bye, there are plenty of bye week issues that could deter teams in need of wins, making it all the more important to get these start/sit decisions right. Time to step up and get those wins.
Robert Griffin III at DEN: He hasn’t throw for over 300 yards since week 3. He has thrown a pick in every game except one but he is trending upwards. He has rushed for 161 yards the past two week, signaling his legs are getting healthy and he is becoming more comfortable on them. This week he gets the Denver Broncos, who have given up the most points per game to opposing QBs. This is the week Griffin throws for over 300 again. Big week for the Third.
Colin Kaepernick at JAC: Save the ladies who enjoyed his ESPN magazine shoot, Kap has been a huge disappointment so far this season. He hasn’t topped 20 fantasy points since week 1. and has been in the single digits three different times. This week he gets the cure all Jaguars however, who are giving up the second most fantasy points to QBs this year. Kap has been running more recently, which have helped, and the 49ers should be able to run roughshod over Jacksonville.
Others to feel good about: Russell Wilson at STL, Michael Vick vs NYG, Andy Dalton vs NYJ
Stevan Ridley vs MIA: Sure, he was benched. He stunk. He didn’t score the first 5 weeks. He didn’t top 53 yards rushing until week 6. BUT, no mas. He has scored 3 TDs in the past two weeks and has carried the ball 31 times during the span. This week he will take on a Miami defense that is far and away the worst team at stopping fantasy running backs which should allow Ridley to rack up another nice day statistically.
Le’veon Bell at OAK: Bell’s numbers to date are not overwhelming. He only has averaged 3.6 YPC, only has 2 TDs and has yet to top 100 yards rushing in a game. His trend like I mentioned with RG3 is trending upwards. Bell has 20, 19, and 20 touches in his 3 games played this year and when you compare that to what other backs get this season, like the US economy, that much work is just hard to come by. His next opponent, Oakland, is in the bottom 5 against RBs which should allow Bell to top 100 yards, score at least one TD, or maybe even both for the first time in his young career.
Eddie Lacy at MIN: Speaking of workload, 23, 23, and 22 carries the past 3 weeks???? In 2013 terms that is the definition of overworkhorse back. The fact that he constantly sees an open box thanks to his MVP quarterback doesn’t hurt his cause either. Lacy is a must start regardless of his match up, but the Vikings have been vulnerable against the run and Green Bay should get up early and pound the rock in the second half.
Other RBs to feel good about: Roy Helu at DEN, Andre Ellington vs ATL, Kendall at JAC
Jarrett Boykin at MIN: James Jones should be out again this week, and now there is no Jermichael Finley. Last week Boykin went over 100 yards and scored and now has a major role with Aaron Rodgers as his QB. When it ain’t broke don’t fix it, and this situation ain’t broke. Keep rolling Boykin out there, enjoy.
Marques Colston vs BUF: Colston has certainly been at the top of the bust chart for WR this year but Jimmy Graham will probably sit out this week. With Graham out, look for the Saints to get their former star receiver some looks, especially in the red zone where Colston has been extremely poor. If Colston can’t perform this week, it’s going to be ugly.
Pierre Garcon at DEN: See Robert Griffin the 3rd above. Jordan Reed has been breaking out for the Redskins and will start to draw a little more coverage from opposing defense. This should allow Garcon to roam a little more free and make a nice statistical impact against the Broncs. He has still had at least 5 catches in every game this year and is due for a big game. I like Garcon to get that big game this week in Denver.
Brandon Pettigrew vs DAL: Another guy who hasn’t had a great season yet but he has a great match up and has been getting the ball recently. Pettigrew scored last week and has had at least 4 catches the 3 weeks prior. The Cowboys, like all teams, will try and take Calvin away and are already the 3rd worse team at defending tight ends. If you need a spot start, you could do worse than Pettigrew.
Carson Palmer vs ATL: Ok, the Falcons allow the 5th most fantasy points to QBs. There are many signal callers on bye this week, but I still don’t want to touch Palmer. He hasn’t topped 17 fantasy points all season, week 1, and he’s only thrown for multiple TDs twice. At some point, we have to figure, it doesn’t really matter how good or bad the match up is, fact is, Carson Palmer’s ability outweighs all other factors.
Terrelle Pryor vs PIT: Bill Polian is on record as saying Pryor has been the most improved player he has seen all season so far. That of course is on the actual playing field. Fantasy he has been solid as well posting at least 18 fantasy points in 4 of the 6 games he’s started in his career. This week he gets the PIttsburgh Steelers though and while they are a little, umm, grayer than the Steelers of the past decade, they are still as stingy as ever against QBs. Second toughest to be exact. Pryor continues to improve, but keep him on the bench this week.
Other QBs to feel nervous about: Ryan Tannehill at NE, Chad Henne vs SF, Geno Smith at CIN
Zac Stacy vs SEA: We have discussed workloads in other blurbs today and Stacy would fall in line with those other backs. He has impressed recently in his run as starter and has topped 20 touches the past 2 weeks. The problem for Stacy is he goes up against a very good Seahawks defense and his QB got hurt. The Rams are more than likely going to be playing catch up so Stacy could rack up some receiving stats as he has proved solid out of the backfield, but it’s a risky proposition this week.
Steven Jackson at ARI: Jackson said he doesn’t feel 100% yet but wants to “give it a go”. Hmmmm, ok. Aside from the fact that Arizona is actually very solid against the run, 3rd toughest against fantasy rushers, Jackson could very easily not make it through the game. We could go over stats and numbers more, but let’s be real, he hasn’t proven anything yet this season, he’s playing a tough D, and there is a very good chance he doesn’t get a full workload. Pass.
Miami Running Backs at NE: The match up isn’t terrible, Chris Ivory just pounded out over 100 yards against the Pats. The issue is the predictability of this rotation. Before the bye it looked like Lamar Miller was starting to get a hold on the starting gig. After the bye, it looked like Daniel Thomas was the main doggy. Flip a coin but don’t start either. Leave it alone until, ahem if, the situation clarifies itself.
Other RBs to feel nervous about: Peyton Hillis at PHI, Chris Ivory at CIN, Darren McFadden vs PIT
Golden Tate at STL: Seattle will get up a lot in this game. Mark it down. The issue is will Golden Tate be a part of that action early. Tate has a sore shoulder and is questionable coming into this game. If I had to choose a Seattle receiver, I would choose Kearse, Baldwin, or Rice over Tate this week.
Julian Edelman vs MIA: Amendola looks like he might be back, and Gronk is now back. Edelman still had 5 catches last week but hasn’t scored since week 1. The bulk catches and the days of 15 targets are no more. Edelman isn’t the type to maximize a 5-7 target day. Edelman=bench.
Denarius Moore vs PIT: Ike Taylor has held far better receivers (Brandon Marshall rings a bell) than Moore to less than 6 fantasy points. I recommended sitting Pryor, I also recommend sitting his number 1 target. This should be a grind it out type of game, and the chances of Moore breaking one free against the stingy Pitt D is very small. Keep your expectations low.
Brandon Myers at PHI: Myers is really falling off a cliff folks. After starting the season off pretty hot, Myers has totaled 7 fantasy points in the past 5 games. Now he goes up against an Eagles defense that has been the stingiest against tight ends. The waivers for tight ends might be shallow, but stay away from Myers.